AGP Executive Report

Fuel Relief Rollout: PM Shehbaz directs nationwide subsidised fuel payments to be settled with fuel stations within 24 hours, with registration via SMS to 9771 and token redemption starting midnight; Fuel Prices: OGRA raised petrol by Rs4.10 to Rs384.34/litre and HSD by Rs6.41 to Rs415.83/litre for Sept 16, keeping levies and margins largely unchanged; Monetary Policy: SBP kept the policy rate at 11.5%, with analysts noting it supports inflation control while avoiding costlier borrowing; Power Costs: Timely Power Division decisions cut August FCA to Rs1.73/unit, saving consumers an estimated Rs10.6bn; Trade & Exports: PM orders red-tape cuts and faster, simpler export procedures, pushing more sectors into global markets; Banking & Housing Finance: SBP barred bank/DFI/MFB employees from WA-AGP subsidised housing financing; Sindh Bank posted Rs4.05bn H1’26 PBT, up sharply; Tax Administration: LTBA flags IRIS e-filing glitches disrupting Sept 15 return filing; govt and traders agree on joint FBR-trader field teams for shopkeeper registration under Easy Tax Scheme; Telecom Regulation: PTA ordered PTML to shut new ONIC operations under MVNO rules, allowing 3 months to migrate existing users; Infrastructure & Cities: KWSC completed emergency repair of a damaged water pipeline in Karachi; Sindh expands public transport with a new Peoples Bus route; Health & Social: Sindh pushes scalable EPHS beyond Tando Allahyar; Senate panel reviews child abuse surge and weak prosecution; Security & Enforcement: Pakistan Customs seized illegal arms and ammunition worth Rs32m; Finance Markets: J.P. Morgan plans to relaunch a frontier local-currency bond index including Nigeria after 11 years, alongside Pakistan and others.

SBP & Markets: Pakistan stocks rebounded as the PSX KSE-100 rose about 0.85% to close near 169,392 points after the SBP kept the policy rate at 11.5%, easing investor worries even as oil-price risks lingered. Energy & LNG: LNG demand in Pakistan, China and India is expected to rebound once Middle East supply constraints ease after the US-Iran conflict, with prices and affordability key to demand recovery. Telecom Regulation: PTA ordered PTML to stop ONIC’s new sales/activations and ruled ONIC operates under the MVNO framework, allowing only a three-month migration window for existing users. Finance & Fintech: SBP wrapped up its first Regulatory Sandbox cohort, with four fintech/banking solutions completing testing (remittances, open banking, remote onboarding) subject to later approvals. Food Security: Pakistan’s decision to allow sugar exports drew criticism over potential price hikes and water/land impacts, with concerns that mill owners may benefit. Geopolitics & Terror Financing: India dismissed Pakistan’s Rs 70 lakh bounty on JeM chief Masood Azhar as “gimmicks,” urging concrete action ahead of FATF review. Sports & Business: Babar Azam is set to return to domestic first-class cricket as an OGDCL guest player in the President’s Trophy, aiming to regain red-ball form.

Monetary Policy & Reserves: SBP kept the policy rate unchanged at 11.5% as inflation risks rise, while FX reserves jumped to an all-time high of $21.4bn on Eurobond inflows. Fuel Relief & Prices: ECC approved Rs75bn for the PM fuel relief scheme, with SMS registration made free; meanwhile petrol and HSD prices were hiked again by Rs4.42 and Rs6.10. Public Priorities Gap: A National Citizen Survey 2026 found electricity and gas prices top citizens’ concerns, while debt servicing dominates the federal budget. SOE Losses: Federal SOEs posted Rs342.8bn losses in H1FY26, with Rs804bn support extended—renewing pressure for governance and financial discipline. Tax & Compliance: FBR will publicly disclose names of simulated invoice issuers and reversed input tax credits; PTBA urged fixes to minimum tax computation in new return forms. Power Sector Reform: Govt launched a steering committee to improve the power regulatory regime to unlock investment and competition. Karachi Water Disruption: Dhabeji outage sparked a dispute between K-Electric and KWSC, worsening supply risks. Security/Policy Signals: Pakistan raised the JeM chief Masood Azhar bounty to Rs70 lakh ahead of FATF review; Senate panel also flagged concerns over health ministry failures after the PIMS nursery fire.

BRICS Diplomacy: Pakistan’s ambassador to Russia said BRICS membership could deepen ties with India, noting most members back Islamabad’s bid while New Delhi has yet to consent. Markets & Rates: PSX slid hard as KSE-100 lost 2,541 points to close at 167,970, with Middle East-driven oil fears weighing on sentiment; the SBP kept the policy rate unchanged at 11.5% as inflation risks rise. Fuel Relief Pushback: Petroleum dealers flagged practical problems with the government’s fuel relief scheme, warning of fraud risks and delays at pumps and asking for urgent changes. Gold & FX Watch: Gold prices fell sharply in Pakistan, down Rs3,800 per tola to Rs453,336, as local rates tracked global bullion weakness. Local Governance: Sindh Assembly passed the Sindh Local Government Act 2026 despite opposition protests, with lawmakers vowing to challenge it in court. Trade & Compliance: Pakistan raised the bounty on JeM chief Masood Azhar to PKR 70 lakh ahead of the October FATF review, while India’s DRI reported seizing 362+ MT of Pakistan-origin dry dates under “Operation Deep Manifest.” Pakistan-Africa Trade: Islamabad launched the Pakistan-Africa Economic Council aiming to lift bilateral trade to $15bn by 2030.

Fuel Relief & Transport Costs: PM Shehbaz announced Rs100/litre petrol relief for motorcycles, rickshaws, Qingqi/chingchis and cars up to 800cc—up to 20 litres for two/three-wheelers and 30 litres for small cars, with rollout starting in Islamabad first, then nationwide. Petroleum Levy Pressure: JI protests against the petroleum levy and IPP agreements entered a new day, with talks with the government scheduled in rounds. Energy & LNG Stress: Reports say Asia’s developing markets, including Pakistan, are paying sharply higher spot LNG prices after disruptions through Hormuz, pushing a rethink of LNG reliance. Power/Contracts Watch: Pakistan LNG Limited warned K-Electric over unpaid Rs8.7bn dues, threatening RLNG supply cessation if payments aren’t cleared. Water Crisis in Karachi: KWSC repaired a leaking 24-inch trunk main after sewage contamination complaints, while earlier Dhabeji outages had raised fears of major water shortfalls. Governance & Tax: President Zardari upheld a ruling on protecting taxpayer confidentiality, while FBR is still facing ADRC-related implementation concerns. Business & Trade Links: Commerce minister Jam Kamal met Hong Kong business leaders to deepen B2B ties; Pakistan and China also pushed AI and digital infrastructure partnerships at CIFTIS. Corporate Governance: PICG urged boards to move beyond compliance amid uncertainty, cybersecurity and sustainability pressures. Local Development: KP’s PDWP approved 14 uplift projects, and Punjab’s PHA plans to restore Lahore’s Nehru Park.

IMF Gas Deal: Pakistan will brief the IMF on a three-year plan to wipe out Rs3.6tr gas-sector circular debt, with tariff differentials the biggest driver, ahead of late-September review talks. Fuel Relief: PM Shehbaz announced Rs100 per litre petrol subsidy for motorcycles, rickshaws and small cars (up to 800cc), with rollout starting in Islamabad then expanding nationwide. Petroleum Levy Talks: Govt-JI negotiations on the petroleum levy were delayed again, with a new one-day postponement and JI pressing for a Sept 20 long march. Saudi Tensions: In calls with Saudi Crown Prince MBS, PM Shehbaz condemned Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and pledged continued efforts to de-escalate as Riyadh’s pipeline shutdown raises energy risk. Water & Power Shock: Karachi’s Dhabeji pumping station outage after a K-Electric cable fault cut water supply by 100m gallons, while power restoration work is underway. Trade & Tech Links: Pakistan and China pushed new B2B cooperation in advanced manufacturing, AI and digital infrastructure at CIFTIS in Beijing. Security & Crime: Punjab Police report a sharp fall in street heroin availability but a shift toward smuggled pharmaceutical drugs, with anti-drone deployments and arrests continuing. US Meeting: PM Shehbaz is reported set to meet Donald Trump on Sept 23 in New York on UNGA sidelines, with Indus Waters Treaty likely on the agenda.

Trade & Connectivity: Commerce Minister Jam Kamal met Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Qatar on Belt and Road ties, pushing B2B links, connectivity and food security. Competition Reform: CCP chief Farid Ahmad Tarar showcased Pakistan’s competition reforms at China’s fair competition conference, highlighting intelligence-led enforcement and a Market Intelligence Unit flagging 225+ potential cases. Exports Watch: Pakistan’s exports to the UK rose 8.42% to $220.25m in July, while overall exports grew 9.38% in the first month of FY27. Automotive Investment: BYD-MMC’s NEV assembly plant in Gharo is in final stages and set to start in H2. Digital Payments: NBP enabled passport fee collections via Raast P2M QR, supporting cashless government payments. Energy & Inflation Pressure: Govt plans a three-year Rs3.6tr gas circular debt wipeout; transporters raised freight rates by 15% after diesel jumped. Policy & Regulation: FBR imposed Rs80/litre FED on petroleum top naphtha, MTT and solvent oil from July 1, 2026. Water Infrastructure: Karachi KW&SC and FWO signed a Rs14bn Dumlottee pipeline deal to add 10MGD for Defence and Clifton within 12 months. Business Diplomacy: Pakistan-Africa Economic Council launched to target $15bn trade by 2030, with chambers urged to drive joint ventures.

Saudi Energy Security: Pakistan strongly condemned drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline in Riyadh and Madinah, calling them a violation of international law and a threat to regional peace; Islamabad reaffirmed solidarity with the Kingdom as Saudi temporarily shut the line. Youth & Inclusion: Zohaib Khan Niazi was nominated as focal person for the PM’s Youth Programme on Youth Economic Empowerment and Financial Inclusion, tasked with expanding opportunities and financial awareness. Terror Probe in J&K: Pakistan-linked LeT handlers and local OGWs are under scrutiny as NIA carried out searches at 10 locations across Jammu & Kashmir, seizing material and tracing a cross-border conspiracy network. BRICS Diplomacy: BRICS adopted the New Delhi Declaration, condemning the Pahalgam attack and pushing “zero tolerance” on terrorism, while also addressing tariffs, trade barriers and global governance. Petrol Levy Shake-up: Pakistan is weighing a major cut in Petroleum Development Levy to Rs5–10 per litre, but the plan hinges on finding up to Rs1.5trn replacement revenue and IMF buy-in. Digital Finance Rules: Pakistan urged UN-led, inclusive regulation for digital financial innovation, including digital assets and tokenisation, to ensure developing countries shape emerging rules. Islamabad Sheesha Update: Islamabad High Court barred unlawful action against legal sheesha cafes while ordering enforcement against illegal operators and demanding a regulatory framework within a month. Cyber Crime Crackdown (Karachi): NCCIA raided a call centre in Malir, arresting seven suspects accused of impersonating foreign banks and targeting foreign nationals for card details.

World Trade & Policy: South Asian countries, including Pakistan, pledged stronger intelligence sharing and coordinated enforcement to fight illegal wildlife trafficking under the Kathmandu Declaration. Tax & Energy Costs: FBR extended sales tax exemption for CKD kits for specified EVs till June 30, 2027; it also sharply raised sales tax penalties for fake invoices and digital non-compliance from July 1, 2026. Fuel & Inflation: Petrol rose by Rs5.02 and HSD by Rs5.28; SPI-based inflation jumped 0.23% WoW, driven by petrol, diesel, LPG and wheat flour. Power Supply Management: PM Shehbaz ordered load-shedding capped at two hours amid RLNG disruptions. Business & Markets: PSX turned bullish, gaining 1,646 points to close near 170,512. Remittances & Digital Finance: SBP said Roshan Digital Account inflows hit $13.9bn by end-August; NBP enabled digital passport fee payments via Raast P2M QR. Governance & Development: CDWP cleared seven projects worth about Rs116bn, including ADB-funded TADRA; NEPRA approved ISMO’s ISP 2025-35 but excluded a proposed BESS investment. Regional Links: Pakistan pushed for stronger trade and agri cooperation with Tajikistan and Hong Kong.

IMF Talks: Pakistan and the IMF are set to begin the fourth review of the $7bn EFF on Sept 22, with an expected two-week mission in Karachi and Islamabad; the government has shared revised import data after earlier discrepancies and the team will also review the governance and corruption plan. Agriculture Digitisation: PM Shehbaz-backed plan proposes a nationwide digital “Digital Farmers’ Diary-AgriStack” to digitise farmers and land records, including soil and water testing, plus Pak-GAP to boost farm productivity and exports. Energy/Inflation Watch: Oil benchmarks slipped on hopes of a Gulf-Iran shipping deal around Hormuz, while markets tracked US CPI ahead; PSX sentiment also swung with oil-price and rate-hike fears. Gulf Security Pressure: As Saudi-Iran tensions over Houthis escalate, Pakistan faces mounting pressure under its new defence arrangements, with officials warning the Strait and Red Sea risks could worsen. Markets/Reserves: Reports highlight improving FX buffers and rising liquid reserves, while PSX volatility continues amid Middle East risk. Legal/Protests: Islamabad High Court sought affidavits from KP officials on whether state machinery will be used for PTI’s Sept 27 march. Cricket & Cyber Probe: NCCIA deepened its inquiry into alleged dressing-room leaks involving Mohammad Rizwan and Imam-ul-Haq, including forensic checks of phones and scrutiny of financial transactions.

Energy Security: Pakistan is set for some relief as Qatari LNG cargoes approach after Qatar’s force majeure, with tenders earlier this month showing steep spot prices and pressure on supply. Social Protection & Digital Payments: Gates Foundation delegations met BISP and Finance Minister Aurangzeb as BISP’s Digital Wallet scales—up to 9.7m free SIMs for women—alongside cashless and health-linked support. Tax & Growth Agenda: Ahsan Iqbal urged a fundamental overhaul of Pakistan’s tax system under Uraan Pakistan, warning the USD 1tn by 2035 goal needs “digital speed” and new revenue engines. SME & Youth Finance: SMEDA and PMYP signed an MoU to expand business and financial support for MSMEs and young entrepreneurs, including underserved regions and women. Microfinance Funding: PMIC and BII agreed a risk-sharing-backed partnership to unlock up to $30m in additional lending, targeting women and excluded segments. Cyber Risk: A survey found 86% of SMBs faced at least one cyber incident in the past year, with phishing and ransomware among top threats. Telecom Oversight: NA IT panel summoned Jazz, Zong and Ufone CEOs over poor mobile/internet services and flagged regulatory gaps. Governance Watch: Courts and parliamentary panels kept spotlighting implementation delays—like pending land transfer risking a $6.79m South Korean museum grant—and workplace safety after Baldia’s tragedy. IMF Review: An IMF mission is due Sept 23 for the biannual review of Pakistan’s economic performance and programme benchmarks. Forex Buffers: Liquid foreign reserves rose to $23.72bn as SBP reserves climbed on commercial loan receipts.

Digital Finance Push: Pakistan’s digital payments crossed 2 million users, helped by the Raast QR subsidy and broader reforms to document the economy and expand financial inclusion. Capital Markets Confidence: Pakistan raised $3bn via dual-tranche Eurobonds, with a key 10-year tenor signaling deeper investor comfort. Energy & Trade: Pakistan received LNG relief as a Qatari tanker reached Port Qasim, while PSX slid on Middle East war fears and oil spikes. Corporate Moves: Cherat Cement plans to buy at least 30% of NICL, and PSX/LADIESFUND are working on a gender-focused ETF and Green Gender Bond. Policy & Governance: IHC ordered action against past court-order violators ahead of PTI’s Sept 27 march, and Islamabad moved to ban sheesha cafes under court directions. Regional Security: FO said no military response is under discussion under the Makkah Defence Agreement, though “more time” is needed as Houthis hit Saudi targets. Consumer Costs: Gold and silver prices fell in Pakistan; iPhone 18 Pro pricing plus PTA charges could push buyers beyond Rs6 lakh. Human Rights: HRW says Pakistan is expelling Afghan medical students, including women, raising access-to-education concerns.

Remittances Surge: Pakistan received $3.656bn in workers’ remittances in August 2026, up 16.5% year-on-year, lifting Jul-Aug FY27 inflows to $7.3bn; analysts warn reliance on remittances can fuel import-driven growth. Gold Moves: 24-karat gold rose Rs800 to Rs462,936 per tola as international prices edged up. Banking Leadership: NBP appointed Imran Sarwar as President and CEO, tasking him with strengthening risk and credit frameworks. Rail Upgrade: ADB said ML-1 design will be finalised by October, with procurement to follow in coordination with the government. Policy Push for EVs: PM Shehbaz approved Auto Policy 2026-31, keeping protection for existing assemblers while offering major NEV tax relief. Market Mood: PSX fell 699 points as Middle East tensions lifted oil and yields, keeping investors cautious. Security & Trade: Pakistan warned Iran to rein in Houthis after attacks on Saudi energy sites, with the Mecca pact potentially at stake. Regulatory Clampdown: Islamabad IHC ordered rules for shisha cafés within a month; meanwhile, Gul Plaza fire case sees JIT plea rejected. Crypto Probe: NCCIA obtained six-month Binance/crypto records in the Mir Raza case to trace suspected funds.

Auto Sector Push: PM Shehbaz gives in-principle approval to Pakistan’s Auto Policy 2026-31, with plans to cut hybrid import taxes (including 20% hybrid tax reduction over five years) to spur local production, investment and exports. Access to Finance & Housing: Shehbaz urges banks to expand lending to farmers, SMEs and housing under the Access to Finance Plan 2026-28 and “Apna Ghar”; 147,504 applications received, 53,127 approved worth Rs313.42bn, with Rs45.43bn disbursed to 8,739 applicants, and provinces to survey eligible collateral properties (Islamabad to pilot the plot-matching system). Remittances Boost: Workers’ remittances rise 16.5% YoY to $3.66bn in August; Saudi Arabia leads with $873m, followed by UAE $750m, UK $564m and US $309m. Markets Under Pressure: PSX KSE-100 slips 698 points (0.40%) to 171,943 as US-Iran war jitters weigh on investor sentiment. Digital Banking Upgrade: Banks begin rolling out WhatsApp banking, letting users check balances, manage cards and transfer money via chat. Corporate Capex: NICL approves Rs3bn capex (~$11m) for new Palmitic Acid capacity, CPW and chlorine expansion, and relocation to Hub for stronger export access. Security/Crime: Karachi police obtain four years of Binance crypto records in the Mir Raza murder probe, with investigators seeking a clearer transaction timeline.

Inter-Provincial & Local Governance: KP Governor Faisal Karim Kundi met Karachi Mayor Murtaza Wahab to discuss cooperation, the local government system and urban development. City Watch: Wahab said there were no casualties in a fire at his office in Karachi, with the Fire Brigade to probe the cause; separate reports show NAB has been directed to investigate alleged annexation/encroachment in Islamabad’s Sky Gardens Housing Scheme. Trade & Business Partnerships: ICCI pushed for a more structured Pakistan-ASEAN economic partnership as ASEAN Day drew diplomats and business leaders; Pakistan-Africa Economic Council (PAEC) is set to launch Friday to connect entrepreneurs with project opportunities across East Africa. Food Safety & Exports: TDAP held an Okara seminar on aflatoxin and rice MRL management for stakeholders. Digital Finance & Tax Ease: JazzCash opened an AI Foundry in Islamabad; easypaisa and KTrade enabled PSX account onboarding via the easypaisa app; FBR rolled out digitally operated settlement/faceless tax processes and promoted the 1% turnover “Aasan” tax scheme for small traders. Energy & Inflation Pressure: Petrol rose by Rs5.58 and HSD by Rs4.18; OCAC urged consistency in fuel pricing margins, while SITE industrialists warned daily fuel price changes could force closures. Policy & Markets: SBP MPC is expected to keep the policy rate unchanged on Sept 14; Senate panel questioned proposed privatisation of power distribution firms. Politics & Courts: IHC formed a larger bench over PTI’s Sept 27 protest; ECP directed MPs to file asset declarations by Dec 31. Banking: BOP shareholders approved Punjab’s up-to-Rs30bn equity injection.

Markets & Energy Shock: PSX/KSE-100 slid about 1,000 points to 172,642 as Middle East escalation fears and oil prices near six-week highs spooked investors. Policy & IMF Prep: Islamabad is weighing a new local tax under an autonomy framework, with proceeds earmarked for hospitals, schools and basic services, to be discussed with the IMF ahead of the next EFF review. Capital Markets Digitisation: easypaisa and KTrade launched instant PSX account onboarding via the easypaisa app, aiming to boost retail participation; SECP also pushed wider digitalisation across regulated financial products. Credit Outlook: Moody’s said Pakistan’s recent stability leaves it better placed than during the 2022 oil crisis, citing low inflation and a steadier exchange rate. Regional Security Spillover: PM Shehbaz condemned fresh Houthi attacks on Saudi cities and energy facilities, warning of wider regional and economic risks; UNCTAD warned Strait of Hormuz disruptions could push SMEs out of global value chains. Legal/Political: IHC formed a larger bench to hear PTI’s Sept 27 protest challenge on Sept 10, with notices to top officials. Cross-border Human Capital: Pakistan’s medical regulator ordered Afghan students in medical/dental programs to return home and barred new admissions.